Insight: Headwinds To Slow Production Growth In 2019

Global crude oil production in third-quarter 2018 was about 76.9 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d), up by nearly 1 MMbbl/d compared to the previous quarter. North America and the Middle East are the major drivers for the jump, contributing about 544,000 bbl/d and 430,000 bbl/d of incremental production, respectively.

Russia and CIS and Africa have also increased production during this quarter (by 177,000 bbl/d and 118,000 bbl/d, respectively). Meanwhile, the production loss in Latin America continued through the third quarter.

In our forecast, global oil production in fourth-quarter 2018 will increase by about 705,000 bbl/d. North America and Africa together will boost production by more than750,000 bbl/d. Latin America is expected to mitigate its production decline and start to stabilize production from first-quarter 2019 as new presalt projects are scheduled to come onstream in Brazil.