COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT SEPTEMBER 22, 2022 (2022-38)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT SEPTEMBER 21, 2022 (2022-37)

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Energy Shock, Energy Transition: A Perspective from Inside the Energy Industry

Energy Aware #1: There Is No Energy Transition Away From Fossil Fuels

This is the first in a series of posts intended to provide a practical understanding of energy, its central role in human civilization, and a spectrum of realistic options that may exist for our collective future. I do not presume to know the solutions to our planet’s ecological and climate problems. I merely hope to share the knowledge I have gained in over four decades in the energy industry with those who want to become more energy aware.

 

Most people believe that an energy transition is underway in which fossil fuels will be a thing of the past some day.

The number of people who searched Google for the term “energy transition” has increased seven-fold since 2005 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. The number of people who have searched Google for “energy transition” has increased 7-fold since 2005. Source: Google Trends & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

More than 30% of Americans favor ending the use of fossil fuels completely.

Even organizations whose core interest is energy talk about an end to fossil fuels in the relatively near term.

“The energy transition is a pathway toward transformation of the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero-carbon by the second half of this century.”
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

Many people believe this is possible but it is a fantasy. I say that based on facts, not on any preference or bias.

People believe the fantasy because they want to. That belief is only possible because of energy blindness.

 

There Is No Energy Transition Away from Fossil Fuels

Energy transitions are additive. New energy sources are added to older ones but nothing is replaced (Figure 2).

Biomass (wood, plant material and crop residue) was the principal form of human energy other than food until the 1880s when coal, oil, natural gas and hydroelectricity overtook it. Nevertheless, biomass use did not decrease. In fact, twice as much biomass is used today as it was in 1800.

Figure 2. Energy transitions are additive. No energy source has ever been replaced. Source: Our World in Data & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Even when we look at energy sources as a percent of total consumption, there is no case for earlier sources being replaced by later ones either. Figure 3 shows the same data that is in Figure 2 except as percentages of total consumption.

The percent of biomass and coal has decreased over time but fossil fuels are not being replaced by renewables, hydroelectric power and nuclear energy. Renewable energy is less than 5% of total world consumption. All non-fossil sources actually declined from 23% of total in 2000 to 21% in 2019.

Figure 3. The percent of biomass and coal has decreased over time. Even on a percentage basis, fossil fuels are not being replace by renewables. Source: Our World in Data & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The world has been in a continuous energy transition since coal became an alternative to biomass in the 18th century. The introduction of oil, natural gas, hydroelectricity, nuclear power and renewables were part of that continuum, not discrete energy transitions. No major form of energy has been replaced or eliminated in the last 200 years.

A new energy transition that will lead to a non-fossil energy future is a belief.

It is a beautiful belief but it is impossible based on everything we know about energy and technology today. All forms of renewable energy production require materials that use substantial amounts of fossil fuels for their mining, transport, processing, manufacture and distribution. Moreover, we know of no way to produce the four pillars of modern civilization—steel, cement, plastic and fertilizer—without fossil fuels.

It may be possible that some of these obstacles can be overcome in the future but almost certainly not in time to make a difference for the ecosystem or the climate.

Lower carbon emissions are critical for the future. That does not mean we can pick a fantasy and make it happen.

Most credible forecasts project that fossil fuel use will decrease over the next 25 years. It is unlikely, however, that they will account for less than about 50% of total energy consumption by 2050.

Fossil energy is fundamental to our way of life, and there is considerable momentum which favors its continued use. Ending or even substantially reducing its consumption would almost certainly lead to painful decreases in living standards and population. Only higher energy prices will cause the behavior change needed to make a difference.

I am not arguing in favor of fossil fuels but simplistic ideas like just ending their use are unrealistic and involve tremendous risk.

Purposeful change requires understanding the facts, events and choices that led to the present state. This suggests that we should become more energy aware.

 

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT SEPTEMBER 15, 2022 (2022-37)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT SEPTEMBER 14, 2022 (2022-36)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT SEPTEMBER 8, 2022 (2022-36)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT SEPTEMBER 8, 2022 (2022-35)

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ENERGY SHOCK

The world is in energy shock.

European imported coal prices increased 421% before Russia invaded Ukraine. German electric power price increased 518%. European natural gas jumped 765% and Asian spot LNG, 957%.  Since then, it’s gotten even worse.

U.K. natural gas futures price has increased +$99.86 (+574%) from $17.41 to $117.27 per mmBtu just since June 8 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. U.K. natural gas futures price has increased +$99.86 (+574%) from $17.41 to $117.27 per mmBtu since June 8. Source: MarketWatch, CME & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Now Europe’s energy crisis is on a path to even worse outcomes.

Russia announced on September 4 that gas supplies to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would not resume in full until the sanctions against Russia were lifted. Finland’s Economic Affairs Minister stated ,

“This has had the ingredients for a kind of a Lehman Brothers of energy industry.”
–Mika Lintilä

Many governments are planning to subsidize consumers with price caps and to help industry with loans. My friend and colleague Nate Hagens recently noted that,

“Europe is committing economic suicide.”
–Nate Hagens

That is because these bailouts are happening at a time of economic contraction, high inflation and rising interest rates. That means increased and unproductive debt at a time that states cannot afford its service except with more debt.

French President Emmanuel Macron recently stated,

“What we are currently living through is a kind of major tipping point or a great upheaval … we are living the end of what could have seemed an era of abundance…the end of the abundance of products of technologies that seemed always available.”
–Emmanuel Macron

Meanwhile, OPEC+ has decided to cut production by 100,000 barrels of oil per day reversing 15 months of output increases. Although oil is relatively less expensive for Europeans than natural gas and coal, many countries have begun using diesel as a substitute to generate electric power.

In August, Saudi oil minister Abdulaziz bin Salman (ABS) said that this may be necessary to correct problems in the market because “the paper and physical markets have become increasingly more disconnected.”

That is rhetorical nonsense but that’s not what is really going on. This is about the second Cold War to create a new world order.

It should be obvious by now that Russia’s war in Ukraine is about much more than territorial expansion. Ukraine is the staging ground for a larger conflict between states who are dissatisfied with the present world order versus those that are more-or-less satisfied. We only need to look at the countries that continue to buy Russian oil and cooperate with Russia on oil: China, India, Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC including Venezuela, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Sudan, South Sudan, Oman, Brunei and Bahrain.

Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar wrote a fascinating post about this in which he identifies the TRICKs bloc of nations—Turkey, Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea—an alliance of economies sanctioned by the U.S. getting ever closer economically and militarily. China and Russia held naval exercises with Iran earlier this year. Iran hosted talks in July between Russia and Turkey, and India, China and Russia held joint military drills a week ago.

The world has begun the descending arc of the Oil Age. Europe’s energy crisis, the war in Ukraine, and escalation of U.S. – Chinese tensions over Taiwan are all part of a struggle to dominate remaining fossil resources as well as new energy sources.

The world is in energy shock. That seems to be awakening people from the big sleep of energy blindness. A major economic contraction seems inevitable. The world order that has existed since the end of World War II is ending. It’s a lot to take in.

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT SEPTEMBER 1, 2022 (2022-35)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 31, 2022 (2022-34)

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ART BERMAN NEWSLETTER: SEPTEMBER 2022 (2022-8)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 25, 2022 (2022-34)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 24, 2022 (2022-33)

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Saudi Prince Delivers a Message About The Second Cold War

Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman (ABS) said this week that OPEC+ may need to cut oil production. This may be necessary, he said, to correct problems in the market because “the paper and physical markets have become increasingly more disconnected.”

This is rhetorical theater. It has no real basis is fact. But that’s not what this is really about.

This is about the second Cold War to create new world order.

In a written statement to Bloomberg, ABS stated,

The paper oil market has fallen into a self-perpetuating vicious circle of very thin liquidity and extreme volatility undermining the market’s essential function of efficient price discovery.
–Abdulaziz bin Salman

It is true that volatility has been extreme since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, 2022 but that was nearly six months ago. The worst of the volatility ended in April so the timing of ABS’s comments makes little sense based on oil-market technical concerns.

Liquidity and volatility are inversely related. When volatility is high, investors are reluctant to invest in futures contracts. That’s because the price variance is too high to make manage risk. With limited capital flowing in and out of oil markets, it is difficult to convert an asset/contract into cash. High volatility begets low liquidity.

ABS’s distinction between the futures (paper) and physical (spot) markets does not survive the light of day.

Figure 1 shows Brent futures price (red), futures price volatility (blue) and 2021 average price volatility (dashed blue). Both price and price volatility increased after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February of 2022. Volatility decreased in April but has not returned to the pre-invasion 2021 volatility average.

Figure 1. Brent oil-price volatility & futures price both increased with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. Source: CME, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Figure 2 shows corresponding data for Brent spot price and spot-price volatility. The relationship between Brent spot-price volatility & spot price looks nearly identical to Brent futures volatility and futures price.

Paper and physical markets have not become increasingly more disconnected. They are, in fact, perfectly connected…just not the way that ABS likes.

Figure 2. The relationship between Brent spot-price volatility & spot price look very similar to Brent futures volatility and futures price. Source: CME, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

That’s why the Saudi prince’s comments are theater. That is also the easy part.

The more difficult part is why he make these comments, why he makes them now, and why he was willing to put them in writing for Bloomberg?

Javier Blas made an astute observation yesterday which I dismissed at first.

“To me, his message Monday wasn’t targeting speculators but rather Western policymakers, who are busy trying to suppress prices via a deal with Iran, the release of strategic reserves or a cap.”
–Javier Blas

It should be obvious by now that Russia’s war in Ukraine is about much more than territorial expansion. Ukraine is the staging ground for a larger conflict between states who are dissatisfied with the present world order versus those countries that are more-or-less satisfied.

We only need to look at the countries that continue to buy Russian oil and cooperate with Russia on oil: China, India, Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC including Venezuela, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Sudan, South Sudan, Oman, Brunei and Bahrain.

Putin’s chief reason for invading Ukraine was broken promises about the expansion of NATO into countries in Eastern Europe formerly aligned with the Soviet Union. The longer-term conflict in Ukraine has been about the parts of that country that wanted to join NATO and other parts that preferred a relationship with Russia.

The press and public somehow seem to have missed the significance of Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s February 4, 2022 Joint Statement.

“This is a pledge to stand shoulder to shoulder against America and the West, ideologically as well as militarily. This statement might be looked back on as the beginning of Cold War Two.”
Robert Daly, Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States

The First Cold War was fought for dominance in the new world order that emerged after World War II.  Despite the popular focus on the Berlin Wall, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Vietnam War, the Middle East was the centerpiece of the Cold War.

During the post-war period, the world shifted quickly from coal and biomass to oil. Franklin Roosevelt met with Saudi King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud in February 1945 to secure U.S. access to oil. The Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan beginning in 1978 as a counter to Iran which was a U.S. ally at the time. The Soviets supplied Iraq with more weapons than any other country during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988. Russia supported Egypt and other Arab states in their many conflicts with Israel beginning in 1974.

Today, the world has begun the descending arc of the Oil Age. The Second Cold War is a struggle to dominate remaining fossil resources and new energy sources. Russia is using natural gas supply as a weapon to damage the economies of Europe. Grain and fertilizer exports have been severely reduced since the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are important exporters of uranium and Russia is a leader in nuclear technology around the world.

None of this is coincidence. Vladimir Putin’s PhD dissertation was Mineral and Raw Materials Resources and the Development Strategy for the Russian Economy.

This is the background and context for Price Abdulaziz bin Salman’s comments this week. His message is that Russia’s interests are our interests and the West’s problems are not our problems.

 

 

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Decoupling Delusion

The future looks bright because economic growth requires ever smaller amounts of energy.

With lower levels of energy consumption and a growing economy, reductions in carbon dioxide and other environmental contaminants will occur naturally. Humans will not have to significantly modify the products we consume nor will we have to make major changes in our behavior.

That is the miracle of decoupling.

That is nonsense.

Decoupling is based on a belief that economic growth has required less and less energy consumption since the early 1970s. This is called the energy intensity of GDP.

The energy intensity of GDP is the amount of energy required to create a unit of economic growth measured by gross domestic product (GDP). This relationship is false and results from the fatal error of adjusting historical GDP for inflation without making a similar adjustment for the price of energy.

The Miracle of Decoupling

McKinsey captured the miracle of decoupling in its 2019 report Energy and GDP Growth.

The amounts of energy that economies need have increased virtually in lockstep with the amounts of wealth that economies create…Nonetheless, our analysis suggests that while a more populous world will create more wealth than ever, energy demand rates will plateau and demand rates for fossil fuels will begin to decline worldwide.

How can that be?

…A steep decline in energy intensity of GDP, primarily the consequence of a continuing shift from industrial to service economies.

The best of all possible worlds.

The correlation between oil consumption and economic activity (GDP) is well known (Figure 1, courtesy of Simon Michaux). Countries that use more oil have greater productivity and, therefore, higher GDP.

Figure 1. GDP versus Total Liquids Consumption in 2018. Source: Simon Michaux, BP and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The miracle of decoupling arises when energy consumption and GDP are shown as a time series. Figure 2 shows the energy intensity of GDP—the same data shown in Figure 1—as a ratio for each year since 1970 (blue line) along with total energy consumption (orange line).

Morgan Stanley used a similar plot of the oil intensity of GDP to project that the world will use less than half the oil in 2040 to increase GDP $1000 as it did in 2000. Eureka!

Figure 1. Energy consumption per dollar of GDP increase has declined since at least 1970. This suggests that GDP can increase using less energy every year. Why then does energy consumption continue to increase? Source: EIA,FRED, OWID, BP & Labyrinth Consulting Services.

The relationship is compelling but it violates most of the laws of physics.

Work is required to create the material production measured by GDP and work cannot occur without energy. How can the economy continue to grow by doing less work and using less energy? McKinsey says that the principal reasons are a shift from industrial to service economies and a marked increase in energy efficiency. 

These sound like reasonable explanations but clearly, the entire world can’t become a service economy. My colleague Thomas Murphy recently wrote,

Continued economic growth in the face of steady-state physical resources would require all growth to be effectively in the non-physical sector…Physical resources…must shrink to an ever-smaller fraction of the economy, translating to a small and diminishing fraction of an individual’s annual income having to go toward physical goods. All the food, energy and material purchases would become essentially free. This result makes little sense in the context of supply and demand.

Similarly, energy efficiency advances are real but infrequent and early gains are the most significant and easiest to make.

Efficiency improvements are not unbounded…Once a physical resource is saturated, we might expect some continuation of efficiency gains that can provide a modicum of additional economic growth. But it will probably be confined in both time and magnitude—the rate of improvement starting at less than 1% per year and declining from there.
–Thomas Murphy

Fatal Error of Inflation Adjustment

Energy consumption is affected by the cost of energy. Analysts who make energy intensity curves adjust GDP for inflation without making an adjustment for energy consumption.

Energy was purchased using the money of the day, not an inflation-adjusted amount that was much higher. This progressively distorts the resulting calculation of  energy consumption per dollar of GDP for each year before the benchmark year for inflation adjustment.

Table 1 compares world GDP adjusted to 2020 dollars and using nominal GDP in the dollars of the day. It also shows global energy consumption and the resulting energy intensity of GDP values.

By inflating 1970 GDP to $27 trillion instead of the nominal GDP of $4 trillion in that year, the resulting intensity value of 2.42 is almost seven times lower than the 16.12 using nominal GDP.

Table 1. Comparison of GDP and energy intensity of GDP for inflation-adjusted and nominal GDP cases. Source: EIA, BP, IEA, FRED, OWID, World Bank & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Figure 2 graphically shows how much distortion is introduced into the resulting energy intensity curves.

Figure 2. Adjusting GDP for inflation without adjusting energy consumption distorts the value and slope of the resulting energy intensity curve. Source: EIA, BP, IEA, FRED, OWID, World Bank & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The implications are profound. Rather than a linear decrease over time, the rate of change in energy intensity is now approaching zero.

Efficiency and shifts toward service economies play a part in decreasing energy intensity but these effects are over-stated. The sharp decreases in intensity before 2000 resulted more from productivity gains than from efficiency gains as more of the world shifted energy consumption to oil from coal and biomass energy sources.

The likelihood of future decreases in energy intensity are low. That means that it is improbable that future GDP will increase without substantial increases in energy consumption. That is bad news for climate change and for earth’s ecosystem.

When things look too good to be true, they usually are.

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 18, 2022 (2022-33)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 18, 2022 (2022-32)

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Paradigm Shift: End of the Oil Age

The world thinks it’s in an energy crisis today and indeed there are shortages in some places but the world is undergoing an energy crisis more fundamental than the simple shortage happening today in Europe. A shortage can be remedied.

The larger problem is that oil use began to decline from 48% of total world energy consumption after 1977 (Figure 1). This was the beginning of the end of the oil age.

Figure 1. The end of the oil age began with the price shocks of the 1970s. Oil consumption has fallen from 48% to 36% of total energy use since 1977. Source: EIA, BLS & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

 

Per-capita oil consumption has been flat since since 1985 (Figure 2). That means that individual worker productivity is not growing as it did before the oil shocks.

Figure 2. World per-capita oil consumption reached a peak in 1978 and has been on an undulating plateau since 1985. Source: EIA,FRED, OWID, BP & Labyrinth Consulting Services.

The world thinks that an energy transition is underway but fails to understand that transitions are additive. The relative percent of fuels changes but volumes rarely decrease. The world uses, for example, as much biomass today as in 1800 (Figure 3). Nor is there any likelihood that this transition will take 30 years instead of the century or longer period for earlier transitions.

Figure 3. Energy transitions are additive. The relative percent of fuels changes but volumes rarely decrease. The world uses as much biomass today as in 1800. Source: EIA, BP, IEA, FRED, OWWD, World Bank & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc

The real crisis today is that oil is the economy. The oil age has been ending for 50 years but there is no substitute for oil. Wind, solar and nuclear only address electric power generation which accounts for only 18% of world energy consumption. Even if we could magically transform 100% of electric power to non-fossil energy sources, this would not address the other 82% of energy use that society needs.

The medium- to long-term should be increasingly affected by limited supply growth (Figure 4). The market will send price signals to producers based on its sense of medium-term supply urgency. Prices will rally until inflation and a fragile economy end the rally. This is the dialectic that I expect will dominate oil markets in 2022 and probably beyond. There is great opportunity for those who understand this pattern.

Figure 4. World oil production is unlikely to regain November 2018 peak of 102 mmb/d. Source: EIA STEO, EIA AEO 2022 & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

These themes are playing against a backdrop of massive global debt load and the imaginary recovery from the economic closures of 2020 and 2021.

Price formation in oil markets is all about supply and inventories are part of supply. Old-paradigm analysts believe that oil demand must revert to ever-higher levels which supply simply cannot meet. In fact, the opposite is true. The correct oil paradigm is supply-driven and price-constrained.

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 11, 2022 (2022-32)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 10, 2022 (2022-31)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 4, 2022 (2022-31)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT AUGUST 3, 2022 (2022-30)

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ART BERMAN NEWSLETTER: AUGUST 2022 (2022-7)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JULY 28, 2022 (2022-30)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT JULY 27, 2022 (2022-29)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JULY 21, 2022 (2022-29)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT JULY 20, 2022 (2022-28)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JULY 14, 2022 (2022-28)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT JULY 13, 2022 (2022-27)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JULY 7, 2022 (2022-27)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT JULY 7, 2022 (2022-26)

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ART BERMAN NEWSLETTER: JULY 2022 (2022-6)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JUNE 30, 2022 (2022-26)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT JUNE 29, 2022 (2022-25)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JUNE 23, 2022 (2022-25)

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NO COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT THIS WEEK

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No Comparative Inventory & Oil Storage Report This Week

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Oil Expert Sees Prices Declining Over The Rest Of 2022 | Art Berman

COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JUNE 16, 2022 (2022-24)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT JUNE 15, 2022 (2022-24)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JUNE 9, 2022 (2022-23)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT JUNE 8, 2022 (2022-23)

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ART BERMAN NEWSLETTER: JUNE 2022 (2022-5)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT JUNE 2, 2022 (2022-22)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT JUNE 2, 2022 (2022-22)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT MAY 26, 2022 (2022-21)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & OIL STORAGE REPORT MAY 25, 2022 (2022-21)

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COMPARATIVE INVENTORY & GAS STORAGE REPORT MAY 19, 2022 (2022-20)

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